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 Post subject: How Lucky is Lucky?Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:19 am

Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:38 pm
Location: So. California
Since I'm not math literate like many of you here, I'll ask you who are for help. Can anyone calculate the chances of getting a lucky solve? Is it possible to calculate? Thanks

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 Post subject: Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:13 am

Joined: Tue May 30, 2006 10:53 pm
Location: FL
be more specific?

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 Post subject: Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:05 pm

Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 1:38 pm
Location: So. California
First of all, I'm talking about the 3x3x3 cube. I use Fridrich F2l, OLL, and PLL. I define lucky as skipping 1+ step/s (each C.E. pair counts as one step). When I say chances, I am trying to say probablity. If you have any other questions about the question..ha..feel free to ask. Thanks again.

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 Post subject: lucky?Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:55 pm

Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2003 11:17 am
cuboholic wrote:
First of all, I'm talking about the 3x3x3 cube. I use Fridrich F2l, OLL, and PLL. I define lucky as skipping 1+ step/s (each C.E. pair counts as one step). When I say chances, I am trying to say probablity. If you have any other questions about the question..ha..feel free to ask. Thanks again.

Each step may be defined mathematically by the number of positions it holds. If you skip that step divide the total number of possibilites by the number of that step.

Your question at first was not so specific to a particular method and gets a slightly different answer. It's impossible to calculate the odds because the more you know and can do, the fewer occurances can be considered lucky.

Consider that my method contains the possibity of knowing how to skip steps. You can skip the Last Level completely and it would not be lucky.

David J

David J

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 Post subject: Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:08 pm

Joined: Fri Mar 18, 2005 10:08 am
Location: Scotland, UK
I haven't made even the remotest attempt to calculate any probabilities of a stage skip, but it happens to me approximately once in every 30-ish solves (using F2L, OLL, PLL).
I won't say "hope this helps" 'cause we know fine well that it doesn't. Soz.

_________________
Never let your fears stand in the way of your dreams. And If your fears are in the way, kick 'em in the nuts. That'll learn 'em!

Last edited by aphid_greene on Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: lucky?Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:33 pm

Joined: Sun Dec 19, 1999 3:02 am
Location: Canada
David J wrote:
Your question at first was not so specific to a particular method and gets a slightly different answer. It's impossible to calculate the odds because the more you know and can do, the fewer occurances can be considered lucky.

Consider that my method contains the possibity of knowing how to skip steps. You can skip the Last Level completely and it would not be lucky.

David J

Good point. Someone who only knows LBL techniques will think a Fridrich solver "got lucky" because the first 2 layers were built at the same time, and a basic Fridrich solver may believe that a ZB solver "got lucky" because the last layer edges are already flipped the right way around. The LBL solver will, of course, think the ZB solver got insanely "lucky", even though in the case of Fridrich and ZB those are what the solutions are designed to do. I think I better way of asking the question would be what are the odds of skipping a step using patterns which are strictly within the bounds of the current solving technique? eg. for a basic LBL solver, the odds of having the F2L solved at the end of the first layer would be 1 chance in 16x14x12x10 = 26880 (26879 to 1 against), while someone who knew Fridrich could say that the odds of that happening are 100%, since that's how the Fridrich technique was designed to operate anyway, and therefore wouldn't be counted as a "skip". L8r.

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